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Weather forecast for November - let's see who is right

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Weather forecast for November - let's see who is right

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/3/q/A3_plots-temp-NDJ.pdf ;
Quote
SUMMARY - TEMPERATURE:
There is a strong signal in the forecast for above-average November-mean temperatures.
For November-December-January above-average temperatures are considered more likely than below, though this signal is likely strongly
influenced by the expected mild November.
Overall the probability that the UK-mean temperature for November-December-January will be in the warmest of our five categories is close to
30% and the probability that it will fall into the coldest category is approximately 15% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories
is 20%).
http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/436170/Worst-winter-for-decades-Record-breaking-snow-predicted-for-...
Quote
Worst winter for decades: Record-breaking snow predicted for November
BRITAIN is braced for the "worst winter in decades" with the first major snowfall expected in weeks.
By: Nathan Rao
Published: Sat, October 12, 2013
Forecasters last night warned the entire country is set for a horror freeze which will bring brutal winds and fierce blizzards.
Temperatures have already started to plunge as a swathe of cold air from the Arctic has swept across the UK in the past few days.
The first long-range forecasts warn of "recordbreaking snowfall" next month.
Heavy wintry showers are expected to cause widespread chaos with below-average temperatures possibly lingering until February.
My bet is on the Met Office even if only because I never believe anything in the Express
13 REPLIES
RichAllen
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Registered: 14-09-2013

Re: Weather forecast for November - let's see who is right

Meh, it's 1/11/13 and it's done nowt but P it down all day Cheesy
jab1
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Re: Weather forecast for November - let's see who is right

Think I'll agree with you, Jim - Express 'weather predictions' seem to be plucked out of the air by zombies.
John
JamesM
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Registered: 24-06-2009

Re: Weather forecast for November - let's see who is right

I will go for option number 2, I think it is going to be a bad winter this year.
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Re: Weather forecast for November - let's see who is right

Aren't the MetOffice long term predictions equally poor?
I used to follow the predictions/forecasts of Joe Bastardi when he was at AccuWeather. He was pretty much spot on year after year.
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Re: Weather forecast for November - let's see who is right

Upper atmosphere jet-stream forecasts - 15th - 18th look interesting, 24th metcheck predicts low of -6C.
http://www.metcheck.com/US/jetstream.asp
itsme
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Re: Weather forecast for November - let's see who is right

Hoping for 2, had an email from Easyjet yesterday to remind me my 1st skiing break this upcoming season is 6 weeks away.
Roberto0151
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Registered: 18-05-2010

Re: Weather forecast for November - let's see who is right

I doubt whether http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=longrange;sess= will be more accurate than others, but it may be worth a look.
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Re: Weather forecast for November - let's see who is right

Meteorology is a science and therefore the data is open to differing interpretations by various parties.
Science is proved by experimentation.....and we are the lab rats.
I am siding with the 'harsh winter' brigade but will be happy to be proved wrong if only for the sake of my energy bills.
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Re: Weather forecast for November - let's see who is right

Substantial amounts of wild fruits/berries in the Autumn traditionally point to a harsh winter.  This year's fruit has been very heavy.
Now Zen, but a +Net residue.
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Re: Weather forecast for November - let's see who is right

Very good crop on my apple tree and pear tree but wasn't aware of this being an indicator....until now. Smiley
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Re: Weather forecast for November - let's see who is right

Strange you should say that, Strat, we have had a wonderful yield of apples and pears as well.
In fact, SWMBO has made some apple crumbles (with cinnamon) today for me Smiley

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Re: Weather forecast for November - let's see who is right

The reason you are getting good apples and pears this year, is that the trees are over-compensating for losing most of their blossom to late frosts LAST YEAR.  This summers relatively long warm spell also helped.
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Re: Weather forecast for November - let's see who is right

Quote from: itsme
Hoping for 2, had an email from Easyjet yesterday to remind me my 1st skiing break this upcoming season is 6 weeks away.

I'm hoping for the same too - signs are good so far http://www.planetski.eu/news/5448