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Theory of Relativity & Immigration

Infinity
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Theory of Relativity & Immigration

Einstein's Theory of Relativity
E=mc2
UK Theory of Relativity ?
P=ib2
(P=Population, i=Immigration, b=benefits)


Number of people in the UK smashes through 64million after one of the biggest population increases in the whole of Europe
Last year, the population soared by more than 400,000 to pass 64million for the first time, according to the Office for National Statistics.
Estimates released yesterday show that from 2001 to 2013, the population went up by five million. The previous five million increase took three times as long, over 37 years between 1964 and 2001.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2670751/Number-people-UK-smashes-64million-one-biggest-popul...
183,400 more immigrants arrived than emigrants left in year to June 2013
I don't understand why they always quote these sorts of figure, ie Net Migration.
As if Zero Net Migration is of  benefit to the UK ?
But only slightly, as in theory there would be less stress on Housing, NHS, Schools etc
Surely the citizens who emigrate are the more wealthy and have skills who contribute more to the UK Economy, than those that arrive, in general ?
(Some are returnees to their country of origin)
With all the implications of increased population on Housing, NHS, Schools, Local Communities, Benefits etc.
Who's going to pay for our State Pensions in the future ?
Here in Derbyshire, we seem to shielded from mass immigration, though of course living in the Countryside, we are all getting older and so potentially placing more stress on the NHS !!


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nanotm
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Re: Theory of Relativity & Immigration

net immigration was always a bad thing but idiots like Blair/Brown didn't understand that populations grow exponentially all on there own in fits and starts, but instead of looking at history they looked at the latest census (91) and declared that the country was in decline and not enough babies were being born (in 97) the following census showed that the country had exploded in numbers (a very high birth rate in the 90's) yet they still went ahead with the open door immigration policy and accepted all those millions when there were no jobs no houses and not enough infrastructure to be able to support things.
the UK has a surplus of a few million people (those that wont be able to get housing in the next 5 years as they become adults) so really it could to with far greater numbers leaving than arrive for the next decade, and certainly that would resolve a lot of the problems with lack of housing and affordability of pretty much everything

yet the reports never say this they just keep spouting the same old rubbish about growth of this or growth of that.....
just because your paranoid doesn't mean they aren't out to get you
WTF
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Re: Theory of Relativity & Immigration

Actually, the demographic problem you describe is real and basically means that anyone over the age 30 have the choices: never retire, live their old age in total penuary or have a slightly higher chance of a neighbour with an interesting accent.
It really is that stark: if we don't have immigration, over the next 20 to 30 years there simply won't be enough people working in the country to generate the national income to support the old people, regardless of how highly you taxed them (even assuming they would accept such taxes).
As for the cost / benefit of immigrants and non-immigrants (let's call them locals), the actual figures are:
Locals: a net cost of £11K per person per year on average (remember: we're running a massive deficit)
Non-EU immigrants: a net cost of £14K per person per year on average
EU immigrants: a net CONTRIBUTION of £6K per person per year on average
i.e. we'd all be worse off without the EU immigrants.

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Re: Theory of Relativity & Immigration

do you have a link for that as it looks extremely interesting
nanotm
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Re: Theory of Relativity & Immigration

your figures don't reflect reality that well,  immigrants don't add net wealth to the country through work they do it by creating a higher need for things that drives up prices  and as such increases the GDP or tax take (a big part of the reason why the country has such a massive deficit is that it was paying up to 30k a week in rent for the newcomers for years), if you get rid of the market demand (the country goes through a massive emigration phase) then the bills of running it go down significantly and the tax take will remain stable (bearing in mind there is plenty of work and its only workers who pay tax), reducing the numbers claiming welfare support will far from having a negative effect actually have a positive one.
just because your paranoid doesn't mean they aren't out to get you
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Re: Theory of Relativity & Immigration

Quote from: nanotm
its only workers who pay tax

Really? Looks like I'm due a refund Smiley
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nanotm
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Re: Theory of Relativity & Immigration

my pension is also taxed but I had to work in order to get it ....
just because your paranoid doesn't mean they aren't out to get you
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Re: Theory of Relativity & Immigration

Vat for example?
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WTF
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Re: Theory of Relativity & Immigration

Quote from: Oldjim
do you have a link for that as it looks extremely interesting

They're from a UCL report discussed here
nanotm
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Re: Theory of Relativity & Immigration

vat is just a way of recycling money though the treasury in order to re-spend it somewhere else for those on benefits, for those who work and create the money in the first place through income tax or corporation tax its seen as a fair way of spreading the load so that they don't have to pay higher taxes to support those who don't .....
if you don't have the workforce to tax in the first place you cant share out the money form them to pay for essential services and niceties like benefits (which are essential where you don't want to be getting robbed by those not in work), clawing back a portion of that money is just a way of keeping general taxation lower but maintaining all the things society as a whole requires ....
just because your paranoid doesn't mean they aren't out to get you
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Re: Theory of Relativity & Immigration

The actual paper http://www.cream-migration.org/publ_uploads/CDP_22_13.pdf has an interesting definition which, in my opinion, rather biasses the claimed benefit/deficit ratio
Quote
Accordingly, in Table 4b, we assign the cost of all these “pure” public goods only to natives, meaning that the expenditure column represents the cost of pure public goods that natives would have to bear in the absence of any immigrant population.  
This completely ignores any effect of the "natives" being unable to get a job or have to take a lower paid job because of the effect of immigration on the labour market
WTF
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Re: Theory of Relativity & Immigration


Quote
Accordingly, in Table 4b, we assign the cost of all these “pure” public goods only to natives, meaning that the expenditure column represents the cost of pure public goods that natives would have to bear in the absence of any immigrant population.  

Pure public goods are defined as being:
Quote
where the marginal cost of providing these goods and services to immigrants is likely to be zero

So that would be reasonable.
Quote from: Oldjim
This completely ignores any effect of the "natives" being unable to get a job or have to take a lower paid job because of the effect of immigration on the labour market

Possibly.  Or it could be that this is largely offset by the increase in job opportunties for - and earnings of - "natives" in providing goods and services to immigrants.
Economics is not zero sum gain.
nanotm
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Re: Theory of Relativity & Immigration

all those reports saying that you need to increase the numbers of welfare sucking drains in order to support the number of OAP's in coming generations are nonsensical drivel based on numbers chosen to purely to support there model view of economics (as judge Judy says if it doesn't seem right it isn't)  
the number of oldies is always lower than the number of young'uns that's a simple fact of geometric expansion, when you start mixing the numbers up by adding in middle aged migrants to support the thesis that in coming years you require x number of working age people more than your likely to have your already wrong (migrants by there very nature come over do some work and then leave) but that's what the commissars did and all the idiots swallowed the lies....
and they don't hire natives to provide services to immigrants they hire immigrants to look after themselves in a culturally sensitive way so as to ensure they don't need to integrate with the country but can create there own ethnically pure enclaves where they all claim " I no speak de lingo"
just because your paranoid doesn't mean they aren't out to get you
WTF
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Re: Theory of Relativity & Immigration

Quote from: nanotm
the number of oldies is always lower than the number of young'uns that's a simple fact of geometric expansion

Err .. no it's not.
In fact, that's completely and utterly wrong.
Population growth in the UK - in fact, across the developed world - has not been a geometric expanision.  Not even close: birth rates have been falling for decades and more to the point, they fell below replacment rates decades ago.
That's the actual math.
The baby boom is so called because there was a vast bubble in the number of babies born after the war.  The baby boomers are living longer than previous generations and had fewer kids than previous generations.
Hence the demographic timebomb.
Denying the problem doesn't change the facts  Roll eyes
nanotm
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Re: Theory of Relativity & Immigration

but they don't require boat loads of welfare draining immigrants to support them, what they require is less draining of welfare system for a decade or two (and if you only had natives living and working then over a decade that would equate to a much lower bill for welfare) added to which 20 years ago when brown made his big speech about number people like me were getting married and having a bevvy of kids in our youth who are all coming up to working age now, which if you discount all non natives actually equates to a growth point, something even the bungling buffoon brown managed to admit in 07 during a question and answer session (it wasn't the only thing he got wrong though there were far more things), he also said that they were living longer and almost immediately a bunch started dying of cold winters and age related illnesses, so instead of allowing nature to take it course they borrowed billions and wasted it on investigating how to stop this natural wastage from happening in order that they didn't look so stupid when everyone realised they'd got  it wrong.....
just because your paranoid doesn't mean they aren't out to get you