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Scotland's Independence Referendum

Community Veteran
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Registered: 27-10-2012

Scotland's Independence Referendum

This will be a rather interesting debate.
The Treasury have stated today that the average Scottish person will be £1,400 better off by remaining in the UK.
The SNP have stated that the average Scottish person will be £2,000 better off by being independent from the UK.
Who to believe?
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Community Veteran
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Re: Scotland's Independence Referendum

No doubt both sides will be analysing each other figures and going over them with a fine tooth-comb. It will be interesting to see their individual results.
Community Veteran
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Re: Scotland's Independence Referendum

It's a sort of pointless exercise as each side will be basing their figures on their own assumptions. Which of course will be different.
The real argument won't be about the money figures it will end up being about the assumptions.
nanotm
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Re: Scotland's Independence Referendum

both sides seem to have a vested interest and the other few times figures have been released by the various think tanks, the last time something came out that the SNP had asked for they then called the figures rubbish because they didn't fit with the desire for independence
I honestly think the SNP has been trying to paint a picture of post independence prosperity that is unrealistic as they know they will cash in big time if the vote goes there way but there also aware that if it doesn't go there way the majority of them will be out of a job so there desperately grasping at straws and failing to produce paperwork to show how there dreaming up the figures.
its fair to say that initially at least Scotland will be a lot worse off financially due to the cots of implementing the necessary changes but after that most of the numbers are guesswork based on best case scenario (being able to attract big business investment) but its unlikely they will achieve those figures without jumping to the brink of bankruptcy as a country with all the required investments in infrastructure provision in order to be able to attract those necessary big business's to Scotland.
even if the average man on the street in Scotland were aware of the realities (rather than being dependant on the various press releases for information) I still suspect they would vote for independence even if for nothing else than to see where it takes them, after all a lot of Scottish people have a yearning desire for it and few would miss an opportunity to voice that desire if there was the slimmest chance of achieving the goal of sticking it to the English /
just because your paranoid doesn't mean they aren't out to get you
Community Veteran
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Re: Scotland's Independence Referendum

Already the 'Yes' camp are suggesting the 'No' figures totally misrepresent an LSE report on which their figures are based.
Quote
LSE academic Patrick Dunleavy later posted on his Twitter account: "UK Treasury press release on #Scotland costs of government badly misrepresents LSE research."
Mr Salmond added: "Danny Alexander's calculations have been blown to smithereens, because the Treasury relied on the work of the LSE professor, Professor Dunleavy, who this morning has accused them of grossly misrepresenting his work."
Community Veteran
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Re: Scotland's Independence Referendum

Interestingly, off at a tangent, I'm off to Scotland in a few days time for a touring and island-hopping holiday. We go there every year for a week or more, often more than once.
I would say that, in calling around arranging a rather complex journey, I spent about 2 days solidly on the phone. Scots accents (and I was only phoning locations in Scotland) were a minority in those I spoke to. The majority sounded English.
There are lots of interpretations of that of course. Last night I was in a group of about 12 people in my local and 4 of them were born in Scotland but have moved "darn sarf" long ago.
My own charitable one is that the integration and mobility of the UK population is such that separation would be close to insanity and have all sorts of awful unforeseen consequences. But what do I know?
I do know the Scotsmen I was with last night have the same view.  Lips are sealed
Community Veteran
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Re: Scotland's Independence Referendum

I'm fairly certain it will be a no vote but doubt Samon will leave it at that by pointing out  that all the yes votes mean  Scotland should have more independence and they are likely to get that, if Labour get in then Scotland will get even more con sessions  so they get the best of both worlds, remaining in the UK  and getting a greater degree of independence
nanotm
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Re: Scotland's Independence Referendum

the only way they can have a greater degree of independence would be to actually be independent, already they have the most devolved powers of any of the regional assemblies, never mind that because they have the power to disburse funding to the area's they see fit there wasting a large chunk of it every year on pointless campaigns to further personal ambitions rather than doing things for the greater good.....a worrying sign of things to come in the totalitarian state they would quickly descend to being should they vote yes later this year (well worrying when you consider that there will no longer be a central government department there to bail out the winter damaged infrastructure year on year .....
just because your paranoid doesn't mean they aren't out to get you
Community Veteran
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Re: Scotland's Independence Referendum

@gleneagles David Cameron has already promised Scotland more freedom to govern themselves if they vote 'no'.
@HPSauce have a good trip. It will be interesting to hear from you when you return on how the locals are seeing the vote.
Community Veteran
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Re: Scotland's Independence Referendum

So.... to look at this on a purely "monetry" point of view....
If the scots stay with the UK... they will be better off by £1400 ...... ERM.... does that mean that everyone in scotland will be given £1400 by the UK government?
and vice-versa...
If the scots go for independence... they will be better off by £2000.... Erm... does that mean that everyone who voted for independence ( and residents of scotland ) will get £2000 from the new government of scotland?
I dont think so...
and if the scots believe that load of trash from either side..........  Roll eyes
Community Veteran
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Re: Scotland's Independence Referendum

Quote from: artmo
@gleneagles David Cameron has already promised Scotland more freedom to govern themselves if they vote 'no'.

And I'd say "fat chance". Once the vote is over and "the people have spoken" no-one outside Scotland will have any interest whatsoever.  Wink
So, if it's a "yes" implementing it will be at the bottom of the pile, and if it's a no there will be "other priorities" than even more devolution.
Quote
@HPSauce have a good trip. It will be interesting to hear from you when you return on how the locals are seeing the vote.
Thanks. Based on my previous regular trips (and I'm expecting no change) I won't be raising the issue but expect that most people I meet who express an opinion will think it's stupid.
Community Veteran
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Registered: 27-10-2012

Re: Scotland's Independence Referendum

To be honest, I can't see how either the UK government or SNP can say anyone will be better off and have numbers to back it up. It's virtually impossible to model the impact of staying/leaving the UK.
As far as the UK government goes, their track record is pretty poor when it comes to estimating figures for projects, so how anyone can have faith in what they put out today is beyond me.
The last opinion polls I saw, put it around 55-60% in favour of staying part of the UK. I wonder if things have changed after the local and european elections?
tinto
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Registered: 21-11-2010

Re: Scotland's Independence Referendum

Quote from: gleneagles
I'm fairly certain it will be a no vote but doubt Samon will leave it at that

I too think it will be a "No" vote, but I don't think it will necessarily be the SNP that decides if the question is finally decided or not.  I believe it will depend on, (a) how close the vote is, (b) whether Westminster, whichever party wins the next election, keeps its promise of further devolution of power, (c) the outcome of any referendum on EU membership, (d) how successful UKIP is at the next General Election.
If there is less than 10% difference in the vote, the SNP would certainly feel entitled to try another referendum, but they'd have to win another majority at Holyrood before that could happen.
HOWEVER, if Westminster reneges on commitments already made by all the major Parties to further devolution, then the Scots electorate may well put pressure on the Holyrood government, however it is constituted, to hold another referendum.  It's also the case that Scotland is more pro Europe than England seems to be, and were the UK to vote to leave the EU, there could well be a call for Scotland to leave the UK and rejoin the EU.  The outcome of the next General Election is also likely to be crucial in whether or not Scotland remains in the UK.  The LibDems have already lost all credibility, they will cease to be an effective political party the day after the election, and their place in the political spectrum looks to fall to UKIP, and unless he's changed tack, Farage has said that he would abolish all three devolved governments.  Neither UKIP or the Tories have any credible support in Scotland, and if either or both hold power at Westminster, it might prove an unattractive prospect for Scotland.
It's entirely possible that wee Eck and the SNP could lose the referendum, and Scotland still leaves the UK. 
Community Veteran
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Re: Scotland's Independence Referendum

Anyone else find the telly interviews of Scottish people giving their opinions more than a bit strange?
So far all I've seen are white people with thick Scottish accents. That's certainly not a reflection of the wide ethnic diversity of the Scotland I know.
Are we being told those are the only views that count and the rest of the population are not real Scots?
Community Veteran
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Re: Scotland's Independence Referendum

Wont they have votes for 16 year olds come the referendum?
That could be the real swinger in favour of Independence!
Geoff,
York.