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Recession

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Recession

Are we headed for a severe recession ?

A number of commentators in the financial field claim we are.

These claims are based on the reduced output from a number of major countries, Germany, China and others. Added to that is the amount of outstand debt on credit cards along with the increasing numbers of customers defaulting on payments to cards and other companies.

The major countries will weather the storm but what of countries already in heavy debt such as Italy, Greece and a few others ? Very  unlikely Germany will offer further financial support to those countries.

Do you think a recession is likely in the near future or are these reports just scaremongering or false news ?

30 REPLIES 30
Baldrick1
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Re: Recession

If there is one here all this will be forgotten as Brexit or even dreaming about Brexit will get the blame.

wotsup
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Re: Recession


@Baldrick1 wrote:

If there is one here all this will be forgotten as Brexit or even dreaming about Brexit will get the blame.


It all the fault of Brexit...... EU / Eurozone has been on verge of recession for a while now - some financial experts describe the Euro as 'as slow motion economic train crash ' - we dodged a bullet not joining that pack of poo, although Tony B Liar was all for it and the same project fear was launched over what would happen if we did not join as has been tried over Brexit...

Minivanman
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Re: Recession

Well given that we live in a capitalist economy I'd say it's inevitable, isn't that how they work, boom and bust?

The better question would be when, and even better would be knowing the answer. Thumbs Up 

Luzern
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Re: Recession


@wotsup wrote:

@Baldrick1 wrote:

If there is one here all this will be forgotten as Brexit or even dreaming about Brexit will get the blame.


It all the fault of Brexit...... EU / Eurozone has been on verge of recession for a while now - some financial experts describe the Euro as 'as slow motion economic train crash ' - we dodged a bullet not joining that pack of poo, although Tony B Liar was all for it and the same project fear was launched over what would happen if we did not join as has been tried over Brexit...


@wotsup ISTM Brexit per se is but a minor factor in the global situation, and, whatever ones stance is, to ignore the bigger picture is foolish.

The accepted warning signs are there for those, who want to see, and are not eaten up by their partisanship for a cause.

No one has to agree with my opinion, but in the time I have left a miracle would be nice.
RobPN
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Re: Recession


@Minivanman wrote:

Well given that we live in a capitalist economy I'd say it's inevitable, isn't that how they work, boom and bust?


Not according to Gor-dumb Brown  Cheesy

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Re: Recession

If the past is anything to go by these thing happen fast, most ordinary people discover them when it's too late, hence the queue's outside banks and financial instutions with people trying to get their money out.....money that is not there !

During one world recession some countries money was virtually worthless and there are cartoons of people pushing wheel barrows full of German currency.

If Banks had no money Direct Debits would not get paid and we would all be getting those red letters ...or perhaps not as there would be no staff to send them out as few would work for no pay.......

Interesting times ahead

@Luzern 

That is just one of several articles which make similar points, the drop in house prices with more going into negative equity is mentioned by some writers and as @Minivanman  says we have been here before.

Champnet
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Re: Recession


@gleneagles wrote:

If the past is anything to go by these thing happen fast, most ordinary people discover them when it's too late, hence the queue's outside banks and financial instutions with people trying to get their money out.....money that is not there !

Not true for public Banks & building Societies, that's just the customers panicking.

Minivanman
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Re: Recession

The biggest fear - and this must go for many who have been allowed to mortgage themselves if not up to the hilt, then not far from it. Boom turns to bust and house prices turn to dust leaving them with homes worth far less than what the owe, and leaving those short sellers who bet on bust to move in and cash in as house prices plummet.

Once the slide starts confidence follows and each feed off each other until they both bottom out - and my bet is that London with it's overheated and outrageous house prices is where it will start... if it's not started already.

It's a long way down folks, so get yourselves strapped in for the helterskelter ride down on that coconut mat.

Me? I'll just hold on to my hat and hopfully, hold on to my pension. 

 

 

Highlighted
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Re: Recession

I've no investments, savings or property to lose, so I'll just do as I did the last recession, just carry on as normal wondering what the fuss is all about... Grin

Minivanman
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Re: Recession

Ditto.

Just need to make sure the veg garden keeps producing, tinned food laid in for winter, and that any chickens I might have to buy again are well cared for. 

Anybody tried growing cauliflowers? 

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Re: Recession


@Minivanman wrote:

Anybody tried growing cauliflowers? 


 

Nah, too much of a waste of resources... Funny

Jonpe
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Re: Recession

A recession on the Continent should be good news for us since the reason given for our inability to remain in the exchange rate mechanism, and the inadvisability of joining the Euro, was that our economy works in a different cycle to that of the rest of Europe, i.e. when they are in recession we are doing rather well and vice versa.

wotsup
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Re: Recession

The reason I heard for not joining the Euro was that it was a really, really, really stupid idea to link economies like Germany and UK with economies like Greece and Italy.  Countries control their economy in various ways like exchange rate and taxes. For countries with massively varying needs ( Germany is an export led industrial economy, Greece a farming and tourism based economy)  to share a common currency without sharing a common fiscal policy is proof that the nutters in Brussels do not understand economics,  but wanted the common currency for ideological reasons....  Germany has done very nicely thank you out of the Euro,  but they cannot prop it up indefinitely - if there is such a think as Darwins Law of economics then the Euro will be extinct in a few years....

Moderator's note by Mike (Mav): Full quote of preceding post removed as per Forum rules.
Jonpe
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Re: Recession

@wotsup, all the points you mention are valid of course.  Tax rates need to be harmonised, the rates of unemployment need to be very similar etc.  When the exchange rate for the Euro against national currencies was fixed, Greece didn't meet the criteria set, and Italy was a borderline case, yet they were both allowed to join, and look where that got them.

There are many Germans who hanker back to the very strong DM, and many who can't see why they should have to bail out the likes of Greece.

The DM was, as you know, a solid currency since Germany had experienced hyperinflation in the 1920s when five million marks went from being worth over $714 in January 1923 to being worth about one thousandth of a cent by October the same year (Wikipedia), and didn't want to return to those days.  One reason Germany suffered less industrial unrest in the 1970s than the UK for example was that they had long term agreements with their trade unions, which you can only have if you can predict the rate of inflation fairly accurately.