Post Brexit Trade Deal with EU

[#1]

Just read this http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37749236

Belgium cannot sign a key EU trade deal with Canada, Prime Minister Charles Michel says, because of regional objections led by staunchly socialist Wallonia.

His statement appeared to dash hopes the Ceta deal could be signed by EU leaders and Canada on Thursday.

Mr Michel said that talks with French-speaking regions had broken down.

This is the EU's most ambitious free trade deal to date but Belgium needs the regions' approval to sign it.

The clear implication from this (in my opinion) is that CETA and TTIP (USA deal) have no chance of being ratified and by extension the chances of a trade deal with the UK (unless we can sneak in under the EAF - European Economic Area) as attempting to negotiate anything else in the two year time frame is going to be totally impossible

[#2]

And that's completely correct OJ! The outcome of anything the Government tries to do will be either rejection by some obscure region of some country, or if the Government recognizes that that will happen early enough, we'll have to go for leaving without any negotiated agreement whatsoever. Which is why I still believe that there will be a general election in Spring next year when the Headmistress will tell us that it's going to be totally impossible to do it unless we accept the dire consequences. Either that or stay as we are.

[#3]

@Oldjim isn`t this the deal that they have been trying to get with Canada for over 7 years negotiations, now  ?  or am I confusing that with another Canadian deal ?

[#4]

you are not confused

[#5]

But we are in a different position to these other countries, as members of the EU we have had a trading deal with them since we joined, by leaving we will have to agree a new trade deal which will not be easy but consider the alternative for the EU and the UK if no trade deal is agreed.

From the day we leave Brussels would have to say, no EU country or firm in the EU is allowed to trade with the UK without our approval which we do not give.

Consider the effect on the EU, thousands more of it's citizens on the dole, millions of pounds lost and a great deal of ill feeling on both sides so there are no winners.

I suspect that many of the large companies in the EU want more trade, not less and will put pressure on Brussels to get things sorted out, when it comes to big business and money they are a key player and can force governments to take notice, many politicians get their financial backing from business and would be lost without such funding.

Only time will tell, the EU faces many problems in the next few years, trade deals with the UK is just one of these.

[#6]

Thank God for the Belgiums!

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/what-is-ttip-and-six-reasons-why-the-answer-should-scare...

[#7]

Flemish separatism, it's the only answer. Either that or this French speaking region gets annexed by France  

[#8]

@gleneagles   At present the UK enjoys tariff-free trade across all borders of the EU. This is a significant saving on trade which does carry tariffs. The moment we leave the EU without an agreement in place we will stop receiving the tariff concessions. The EU will not ban any company from trading with the UK, and in many cases will have no choice but to trade with EU companies because we need their products. So the upshot is that the cost to us of buying products from the EU will rise significantly which will affect our economy. That's why we need some kind of beneficial agreement, or just stay as we are now. Any agreement has to satisfy all regions of all countries in the EU which is fraught with problems as is now apparent.

[#9]

@nozzer

The thing about tariff's is that the money has to come from somewhere, in our case we were getting back from the EU about half the money we paid in.

Goods from the EU will indeed cost us more and as the £ has been devalued they are likely to cost a lot more so it's likely we will be able to afford the level of goods we currently get from the EU which hardly helps them so it must be in their interests to offer us a good deal.

I accept that may not happen when you have to get 37 representatives each with their own agenda to agree which can only add to the present troubles the EU have.

[#10]

The High Court has ruled that MPs and the House of Lords must be given a vote before Mrs. Maybe triggers Article 50. 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37857785

https://www.judiciary.gov.uk/judgments/r-miller-v-secretary-of-state-for-exiting-the-european-union/

[#11]

There just dragging their feet because no one wants to be the one to trigger article 50

[#12]

Ah well, the worry warts on here, can worry less about WW3, and worry more about the next British Civil War between the Establishment supporters and the Public.  It will be interesting to see what happens should Parliament vote against Brexit.

[#13]

If Parliament vote against Brexit then what is the point in giving the public the right to vote, it all seams pointless and makes us all look stupid.

[#14]

Unfortunately the Referendum had no basis in law, it was no more than just a survey.

On the other hand, giving the absolute right to a Prime Minister to make and implement decisions without reference to anyone is dangerous I think. How many PMs would you have trusted with that kind of power?

[#15]

I suspect if there was another referendum now the result would be to stay as many folk would think is it really worth all the hassle.

Personally I wouldn't change my vote.