Newark By-Election

[#1]

One week to go to the Newark by-election.  The Conservatives are defending a 16,000 majority.
Will the Tories hold the seat or will the UKIP protest voters have an effect? Will UKIP split the vote and allow Labour in?
11 candidates are contesting the seat.

[#2]

That will be interesting.
Will the LibDems get a look in or will they lose their deposit.
Will they even be beaten by the Bus Pass Elvis Party.

[#3]

Quote from: billnotben

Will they even be beaten by the Bus Pass Elvis Party.

Bet they have a more sensible manifesto than…er….some other parties standing!
I think the Tories will probably hold as a vote for your MP means more to people than European Elections (rightly or wrongly) so people will revert to their usual voting strategy. Plus 16000 is a sizeable majority to overcome; I’d be interested to know the swing required to UKIP to win this seat?

[#4]

It will be a lot closer than 16,000 votes - that's for sure.
In the European Elections, UKIP had the highest majority in the Newark area:

Quote

Ukip won 32.4 per cent of the vote and the Conservatives 31.2 per cent.

But the European Elections have a different boundary to the Parliamentary voting.
I think the Lib Dems will have another shocking vote here. I can't believe some people in their party think that Vince Cable is a suitable replacement for Nick Clegg!

[#5]

If the Lib Dems lose badly it could be the end for the Party and certainly for Clegg. It will take a long time to regroup again.
As for Cable I feel he has lost all creditability. He comes across as a bit of a back-stabber and at age 70 I can't see him rallying the young voter which is going to be essential for survival.  His handling of the Royal Mail sell-off will also count against him.

[#6]

It is the end for the lib dems  all this in fighting will finish them off for good, they do not seem  to ever had a good leader and there is no one good enough to see them through this mess.
No matter what the outcome I doubt it will change the thinking of the other two main parties who still seem incapable of understanding and acting on what a good number of voters want.
No matter who you support I doubt you would agree to the increasing number of those in the house of  lords who got their seats through making large financial contributions to their political party

[#7]

Quote from: randpwar

Bet they have a more sensible manifesto than…er….some other parties standing! I think the Tories will probably hold as a vote for your MP means more to people than European Elections (rightly or wrongly) so people will revert to their usual voting strategy. Plus 16000 is a sizeable majority to overcome; I’d be interested to know the swing required to UKIP to win this seat?

Yes at least they have a manifesto but that's not the issue I don't think. Many will remember their manifesto at the General Election and also remember how they back tracked on some of their promises. University fees was perhaps the one thing most voters will not forget.

[#8]

We are constantly being told by Cameron  that he will renegotiate our terms with the EU. But he has not exactly spelled out  what he wants to change or the minimum he is prepared to accept  before encouraging voters to stay in the EU.

[#9]

Equally there seems to be no list of realistic things that people think need changing about the EU or reforming.
When you examine the "complaints" there's a huge list of random things that generally are nothing to do with the EU at all (e.g. ECHR), i.e. the EU is the aunt sally to be blamed for all the ills they perceive.
And UKIP of course just want to be totally out so they aren't involved in that debate. But they are of course happy to feed on the disaffection.
There seems to be a feeling, even among those supporting staying in the EU, that it needs changing. But concrete proposals are needed for people to focus on and debate. 

[#10]

Quote from: artmo

University fees was perhaps the one thing most voters will not forget.

But the LibDems didn't actually win the election, so how could they impose that? 
If they'd got a majority in the Commons then not followed up fine, but they came 3rd!

[#11]

I think it would be foolhardy if Cameron was to announce the things he wants to change. It would weaken his hand in negotiations and also start an unnecessary debate here at home.

[#12]

But who else is going to? UKIP definitely won't.

[#13]

Quote from: HPsauce

Equally there seems to be no list of realistic things that people think need changing about the EU or reforming. When you examine the "complaints" there's a huge list of random things that generally are nothing to do with the EU at all (e.g. ECHR), i.e. the EU is the aunt sally to be blamed for all the ills they perceive. And UKIP of course just want to be totally out so they aren't involved in that debate. But they are of course happy to feed on the disaffection.

You cannot be serious !
Let's start with borders which we have absolutely no control over, we need some sort of control of how many people we allow in, irrespective of where they are from, we need to be able to deport people such as criminals or others without waiting for them to appeal to some EU court.
WE need to stop paying millions of pounds to the EU who have never had a financial audit signed off in all the years of it's existence. It is no secret that a lot of money has been lost through fraud.

[#14]

Quote from: gleneagles

we need to be able to deport people such as criminals or others without waiting for them to appeal to some EU court.

And we're off! 
Which EU court exactly? (hint - there isn't one)  

[#15]

Quote from: artmo

I think it would be foolhardy if Cameron was to announce the things he wants to change. It would weaken his hand in negotiations and also start an unnecessary debate here at home.

Why do you sat it's a unnecessary debate ?
Anything that effects us is very necessary !