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Met Office winter forecast

Community Veteran
Posts: 38,246
Thanks: 934
Fixes: 56
Registered: 15-06-2007

Met Office winter forecast

some of you may remember Roger Harribin on the BBC stating that the Met Office had given the government early warning of a cold start to the winter http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/8237397/Met-Office-kept-winter-forecast-secret-from-public... gives the background.
Well a request to Quarmby http://transportwinterresilience.independent.gov.uk/docs/interim-report/press-release.php has produced the warning they gave http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2011/1/21/a-copy-of-that-cold-winter-forecast.html
Quote
    Met Office Initial Assessment of Risk for Winter 2010/11
    This covers the months of November, December and January 2010/11, this will be updated monthly through the winter and so probabilities will change.
    Temperature
    3 in 10 chance of a mild start
    3 in 10 chance of an average start
    4 in 10 chance of a cold start
    Precipitation
    3 in 10 chance of a wet start
    3 in 10 chance of an average start
    4 in 10 chance of a dry start
    Summary: There is an increased risk for a cold and wintry start to the winter season.
    Looking further ahead beyond this assessment there are some indications of an increased risk of a mild end to the winter season.
and they used a £30 million super computer to produce that
Just to finish off - just be glad you don't live in Minnesota (and these temperatures are in deg F)
3 REPLIES
Community Veteran
Posts: 18,545
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Registered: 12-08-2007

Re: Met Office winter forecast

They seem to be saying there is almost the same odds for a mild, average or cold start Undecided Undecided  Same for precipitation.  Talk about covering your own back. It seems a totally useless exercise at great expense.
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Registered: 14-04-2007

Re: Met Office winter forecast

...but they get more accurate as the period passes Tongue
Something called hindsight apparently Smiley
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Community Veteran
Posts: 18,545
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Registered: 12-08-2007

Re: Met Office winter forecast

On LBC radio they use a private company for weather forecasts.  I am always impressed with the accuracy of their forecasts and also the timings.  They will often predict rain at say, 3pm and you can set your watch by it.