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Global warming...????

Community Veteran
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Registered: 30-08-2007

Global warming...????

Is the pro-global warming (being caused by humans) movement starting to lose the argument?
I’ve made no secret in these forums of my belief that personally, I think the idea that the human race is significantly contributing to global warming is largely bunkum. I do not however, dispute that a warming process is going on, only that it is a largely natural process. Nor do I dispute that there is an urgent need to deal with the vast amounts of waste and rubbish we produce, and thoroughly support the need to re-cycle.
But I wonder if there is a gentle shift in the propaganda we’re being fed, with these three unrelated articles to appear in the last few days:
This morning on BBC News 24, featured an article from the peat-bogs in Derbyshire, and the almost throwaway snippet that the bogs give off more CO2 than the whole of the population of the UK.
Earlier this week, a scientist pointed out that, the world’s active volcano’s chuck out far more CO2 daily than the human race has managed in the last fifty years.
In response to a question in the Daily Mail question and answer column today, about the Viking explorations in the years BC, research has shown that when they discovered Greenland, it was exactly that, A green and pleasant land, unlike the ice covered island we know today…because the worlds climate was a lot warmer then.
Experience; is something you gain, just after you needed it most.

When faced with two choices, simply toss a coin. It works not because it settles the question for you. But because in that brief moment while the coin is in the air. You suddenly know what you are hoping for.
47 REPLIES
Community Veteran
Posts: 38,251
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Registered: 15-06-2007

Re: Global warming...????

Being old enough to remember when all the experts were predicting a mini ice age I was always a bit sceptical about the so called consensus.
If you want to read a bit from the "global warming deniers" which is the current pejorative term for those who don't agree. have a look here http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/
Njal
Grafter
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Registered: 30-07-2007

Re: Global warming...????

The Grumpy Old Sod has something to say on the subject at:
http://www.grumpyoldsod.com/global%20cooling.asp
Regards,
Neil
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Re: Global warming...????

Try checking on what happened to the weather in the USA on the two days following 9/11 when all planes were grounded - then try to convince me that human activity doesn't affect the climate!
Sorry but you are talking spherical objects!
jelv (a.k.a Spoon Whittler)
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Community Veteran
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Re: Global warming...????

That is not backed up by later academic research http://www.int-res.com/articles/cr2004/26/c026p001.pdf
Quote
ABSTRACT: Several investigators have suggested that the airline shutdown following the 9/11
terrorist attacks led to a reduction of jet contrails and an increase in the diurnal temperature range
(DTR) across the US. Here, we use an air-mass approach to control for weather conditions across the
country following 9/11 in order to more accurately assess the observed patterns in the temperature
range. We indeed find a higher-than-average DTR shortly after the attacks, but we find that the
unusually clear weather across the US more than accounts for the observed DTR.
Community Veteran
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Re: Global warming...????

just seen this new paper from the Hadley Centre linky but beware - it's over 2MB
I have taken this picture from it - and it's self explanatory
However looking at the same dataset from http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcrut3/diagnostics/global/nh+sh/ the average temperature from 2005 to 2007 has dropped about another 0.075 deg. (this ignores the sudden drop in Jan/Feb this year)
Njal
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Re: Global warming...????

The Telegraph reported a couple of years ago:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2006/04/09/do0907.xml
From the GOS:
"• This year, China had its coldest winter in 100 years …

• … and Baghdad saw its first snow in all recorded history …

• … and North America had the most snowcover in 50 years, with places like Wisconsin the highest since record-keeping began …

• … and Minnesota, Texas, Florida, Mexico, Australia, Iran, Greece, South Africa, Greenland, Argentina and Chile all reported record low temperatures …

• … and all four major global temperature tracking outlets (Hadley, NASA's GISS, UAH, RSS) all report that over the past year global temperatures have dropped precipitously. The total amount of cooling ranges from 0.65C up to 0.75C - a value large enough to wipe out nearly all the warming recorded over the past 100 years. All in one year …

• a… and the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reports that almost all the allegedly 'lost' ice has come back …

• … and there is nearly a third more ice in Antarctica than usual. "
and the wife's turned the central heating down and I'm freezing my nuts off here.
Regards,
Neil
HighLordPhanty
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Re: Global warming...????

Quote from: petlew

This morning on BBC News 24, featured an article from the peat-bogs in Derbyshire, and the almost throwaway snippet that the bogs give off more CO2 than the whole of the population of the UK.

As usual they probably forgot to mention that they only release carbon once they get too warm.
Like the Arctic tundra is doing as it starts to melt.
Quote from: petlew

Earlier this week, a scientist pointed out that, the world’s active volcano’s chuck out far more CO2 daily than the human race has managed in the last fifty years.

And some basic googling would show that he's talking rubbish.
And conveniently forgetting the cooling effect of all of the other aerosols that volcanos spew out.
Furthermore, single extreme temperature events tell you nothing about the overall trend.
Jim
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Re: Global warming...????

Oldjim, in the year our beloved queen married Phillip, it was also the year a world wide scientific survey was begun, which I believe was called "the International Geophysical Year" or something very like it, Prince Phillip was I think one of the British Patrons. One of the major items on the agenda was to research an anomaly in the ozone layer over Antarctica and New Zealand, and that was over 50 years ago. 
Experience; is something you gain, just after you needed it most.

When faced with two choices, simply toss a coin. It works not because it settles the question for you. But because in that brief moment while the coin is in the air. You suddenly know what you are hoping for.
Community Veteran
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Re: Global warming...????

petlew,
I can't even claim to remember that as I was only 5 at the time but Googling for International Geophysical Year 1947 throws up a lot of results however I think that the Global Ozone Observing System was set up in the International Geophysical Year 1957-1958
dgdclynx
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Re: Global warming...????

I think the best book on the subject is Fred Pearce's The Last Generation. Although I am biased cos he is a regular contributor to the New Scientist having previously been environment correspondent.
I subscribe both to Scientific American and New Scientist and you wont find any doubts about the situation there. The only question is when will things get nasty and with a bit of luck it will be after my lifetime.
Community Veteran
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Re: Global warming...????

Quote from: Njal
The Telegraph reported a couple of years ago:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2006/04/09/do0907.xml
From the GOS:
"• This year, China had its coldest winter in 100 years …

• … and Baghdad saw its first snow in all recorded history …

• … and North America had the most snowcover in 50 years, with places like Wisconsin the highest since record-keeping began …

• … and Minnesota, Texas, Florida, Mexico, Australia, Iran, Greece, South Africa, Greenland, Argentina and Chile all reported record low temperatures …

I can't decide whether people are genuinely too thick to understand the information about global warming, or are in denial because it absolves them from taking any personal responsibility (or as in the United States - both).
Global warming does not mean temperatures will rise everywhere round the world. What it means is that we will see more extremes of all weather conditions. Just look at how many of the wettest, driest, hottest, coldest months on record have occurred in the last few years.
jelv (a.k.a Spoon Whittler)
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Community Veteran
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Re: Global warming...????

Hi Jelv, I'm trying to decide if that was a pop at me or not. You refer to "recorded history" just how long a time span does that cover? 2 er 3 thousand years maybe? naught but a tiny pin-prick in life history of the Earth and the rest of the Solar System. Personally, I'm not disputing something is going on, only that it's a natural process and, that we, the human race are powerless to do anything about it, other than adapt our living conditions to "cope" with it, not arrest it's progress, that at best is fanciful, at worst arrogant.
A large number of scientists receive their research grants from commercial organisations, who apply subtle pressure to obtain the results they want for commercial reasons. Another large number of scientists have tried to remove themselves from the "group of 2000" who put their names originally to the Global Warming warning, but have found it impossible to do so. I suggest you obtain a copy of the well received C4 documentary "The Great Global Warming Conspiracy" which proved fairly conclusively that rather than global warming, non-partisan research shows that the Earths climate is actually cooling, and has been for some time, if you want one let me know.
Experience; is something you gain, just after you needed it most.

When faced with two choices, simply toss a coin. It works not because it settles the question for you. But because in that brief moment while the coin is in the air. You suddenly know what you are hoping for.
Community Veteran
Posts: 26,377
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Registered: 10-04-2007

Re: Global warming...????

Community Veteran
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Registered: 15-06-2007

Re: Global warming...????

An interesting report but again it requires a little more analysis. Take first this statement
Quote
The world's glaciers are melting faster than at any time since records began, threatening catastrophe for hundreds of millions of people and their eco-systems.
Although also mentioned (but not directly linked) it needs to be emphasized that since records began in this context is only from 1980. The data is available here http://www.geo.unizh.ch/wgms/mbb/mbb9/sum06.html and definitely shows a very large increase in net melt rate in 2005/2006 compared to the previous year although there was also a high level in 2002/2003 both of which are significantly higher than the historical average. This further comment
Quote
Based on historical records and other evidence, the rate at which the glaciers are melting is also thought to be faster that at any time in the past 5,000 years, said Professor Wilfried Haeberli, director of the monitoring service.
will require more investigation as to the basis on which the assumption has been made.
The problem with all this is that although the world is getting warmer the forecasts based on carbon dioxide emissions aren't matching what has actually happened over the last 10 years.
It will be interesting to see what happens over the next couple of years in relation to average world temperature given the dramatic drop in the last couple of months. If the forecasts are correct there should be a rapid bounce back similar to 2000 although there the drop wasn't so severe.