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Dust cload latest maps latest 20/4 at 22:00 All UK Open

pierre_pierre
Grafter
Posts: 19,757
Registered: 30-07-2007

Dust cload latest maps latest 20/4 at 22:00 All UK Open

Nearly reached USA

31 REPLIES
Community Veteran
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Re: Dust cload latest maps

since the other thread was locked I will hijack this one  Roll eyes
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/7608722/Volcanic-ash-cloud-Met-Office-blamed-for-unnecessary-six-day...
Quote
Volcanic ash cloud: Met Office blamed for unnecessary six-day closure
The Met Office has been blamed for triggering the “unnecessary” six-day closure of British airspace which has cost airlines, passengers and the economy more than £1.5 billion.
The government agency was accused of using a scientific model based on “probability” rather than fact to forecast the spread of the volcanic ash cloud that made Europe a no-fly zone and ruined the plans of more than 2.5 million travellers in and out of Britain.
A senior European official said there was no clear scientific evidence behind the model, which air traffic control services used to justify the unprecedented shutdown.

Eleven major British airlines joined forces last night to publicly criticise Nats, the air traffic control centre, over the way it interpreted the Met Office’s “very limited empirical data”.
Obviously the same computers which forecast a warmer than average winter
pierre_pierre
Grafter
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Re: Dust cload latest maps

I'll let you
Just had reports on Local Radio, high flying plane over the Essex coast, they wondered why so sent them this e-mail
Quote
taking the Logic, the dust cloud is at 20,000 ft.  A plane can take off from Madrid legally, it can fly up to 35,000 over the top of the dust, then come down in Scotland, Legally
scootie
Grafter
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Re: Dust cload latest maps

to be honest i dont give a dam if they got it wrong or right.
its bein nice to have only the things nature intend to have in the skys for the past few days.
plus i would rather have the skys shut down at the expense of some holiday makers being stuck in sunny climates due to the risk of there polluting plane coming down and crashing into some ones house.
can you tell i need a holiday Grin
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Re: Dust cload latest maps

Quote
The government agency was accused of using a scientific model based on “probability” rather than fact

Said by someone with a total lack of scientific understanding.
The only FACTS the Met Office can publish are what it is doing NOW or has done in the past. ALL forecasts are based on probability, the further in to the future you look the lower the probability. What I found interesting was a comment I heard the other day that comparing the forecasts produced by a number of different agencies using different models there was a high level of correlation.
jelv (a.k.a Spoon Whittler)
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Community Veteran
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Re: Dust cload latest maps

The problem isn't the met office forecast which isn't too far adrift it is the ICAQ (International Civil Aviation Organization) rules which are rather over cautious as they don't define a safe level
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/2010/volcano.html
Quote
Last updated: 1231 BST on Tuesday, 20 April 2010
Volcano
Eruptions from Eyjafjallajökull have continued overnight with debris being emitted up to 4 to 5 km for much of the time. Weather patterns continue to blow areas of ash towards the UK.
The Met Office uses multiple dispersion models endorsed by the international meteorological community. The output from the Met Office volcanic ash dispersion model has been compared with our neighbouring VAACs in Canada and France since the beginning of this incident and the results are consistent.
Our models are confirmed by observations which have seen ash in the UK and south of England. These include:
    * Met Office and NERC aircraft have observed volcanic ash in UK airspace at varying heights.
    * Multiple land observations have recorded ash in the skies across the UK, including across southern Britain.
    * Balloon observations have shown a 600 m deep ash cloud at an altitude of 4 km across parts of the UK.
    * NATO F16 fighter jets have reported engine damage, due to volcanic ash when flying through European airspace.
The Met Office is the north-west European Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre with responsibility for issuing the Volcanic Ash Advisories for volcanoes erupting in this area in line with internationally agreed standards and processes. This means the Met Office’s role is to support NATS, CAA and other aviation authorities decision-making.
It is for the aviation industry and regulator to set thresholds for safe ash ingestion. Currently, world-wide advice from ICAO is based on engine and airframe manufacturers stating a zero tolerance to ash ingestion. This means that aircraft should not be exposed to any volcanic ash. 
pierre_pierre
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Registered: 30-07-2007

Re: Dust cload latest maps

Backing up my quoted e-mail, BBC Look east are showing  shortly video of vapour trails ove east anglia, previed at stat of news
Quote
NATO F16 fighter jets have reported engine damage, due to volcanic ash when flying through European airspace.
Currently, world-wide advice from ICAO is based on engine and airframe manufacturers stating a zero tolerance to ash ingestion. This means that aircraft should not be exposed to any volcanic ash. 

I take it the Airline spokes people are nuts
Community Veteran
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Re: Dust cload latest maps

From the lunchtime news I gather that British airspace above 20,000 ft is open - hence the vapour trails.
jelv (a.k.a Spoon Whittler)
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pierre_pierre
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Re: Dust cload latest maps

Correct, they said it was Continental aircraft on the way to America at over the height of the Dust.  Also shown was the Met sampler plane from Cranfield (Bedfordshie) who are getting lots of contaminated samples, so obviously not clear
Community Veteran
Posts: 1,850
Registered: 11-08-2007

Re: Dust cload latest maps

had our airspace not been cleared and aircraft free to fly, what would be the reaction when several of them dropped out of the sky from engine failure?
an intelligent response to this event would be more along the lines of 'this could happen again, so what measures shall we put in place to mitigate the worst effects thereof?'  we may suffer food shortages.  better grow more of our own grub.  we may not be able to travel by air on a whim so often.  better build more ships.  etcetera, etcetera, etcetera.
i'm waiting on katla busting a gut.
pierre_pierre
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Re: Dust cload latest maps

here is the Look East news item about the Cranfield flight http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/8632677.stm
Community Veteran
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Re: Dust cload latest maps

One solution
Community Veteran
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Re: Dust cload latest maps

I know this is an AGW sceptic site so don't complain but the videos are really helpful in showing the progression of the eruption
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/04/20/is-fossil-fuel-co2-different-from-volcanic-co2/
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Re: Dust cload latest maps

Can this be a serious suggestion?
pierre_pierre
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Re: Dust cload latest maps latest 20/4 at 22:00 All UK Open

Just announce all UK airport open, first BA planes just landed at Heathrow - Long Haul