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Does anyone believe

Community Veteran
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Registered: 24-09-2008

Does anyone believe

We are out of recession?
That 0.1% growth is a bit too coincidential on the plus side.
Any side bets that it was actually  –0.1% and conviently miss read
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Re: Does anyone believe

It certainly doesn't feel like it in my neck of the woods.
We do however have a fairly healthy order book albeit mostly export.
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Steve
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Re: Does anyone believe

I most definately do not believe it,im sure we will learn more about this come april.
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Re: Does anyone believe

I find it a most odd definition.
The economy drops like a stone and just because it has bounced back a tiny bit we are out of the recession  Crazy
alanf
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Re: Does anyone believe

And as a recession is defined as two successive quarters of negative growth we cannot go back into recession before 6 months time.
Lurker
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Re: Does anyone believe

Quote from: Oldjim
I find it a most odd definition.
The economy drops like a stone and just because it has bounced back a tiny bit we are out of the recession  Crazy

If its not receding, it can't be in recession - what is odd about that?
Surely the odd thing is that politicians see such a tiny amount of growth as something worthy of such cooing, and something they all want to take credit for.
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Re: Does anyone believe

It's so small I don't believe it.  What's the saying about there being lies, damned lies and statistics. Wink Wink
Lurker
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Re: Does anyone believe

'Statistics are as a lampost is to a drunkard; more for leaning on than illumination.'
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Re: Does anyone believe

Proud Wise words on a dusty shelf Smiley
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Re: Does anyone believe

Even if it's true I think we are almost the last of the G8 countries to come out of recession.  Doesn't say much for our management of the economy does it?
Denzil
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Re: Does anyone believe

Of course, this quarter is when VAT went back up, which might damp things down a bit.
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Re: Does anyone believe

No, these figures are for the last quarter and VAT went up on 1st January which will reflect in the next figures to be released.
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Re: Does anyone believe

Would the VAT change really have made much of a difference anyway? Consider someone who was going to buy something costing £1000 before the reduction – the new price would've only been £978.72. I can't really imagine £20 off a £1000 item spurring people in to spending more money; similarly, I can't imagine a return of the VAT rate to normal suddenly making people think twice about purchasing either.
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Re: Does anyone believe

I suspect it really only hit traders initially who had to 'reduce' the displayed VAT inclusive prices.
Then over the course of a year they increased their prices, and now they have stayed the same and taken the hit on margin.
Effectively its given traders 2.5% during a slow time in the economy.
Very little for joe-public IMO, except reduced duty revenues meaning even further shortfalls in the public purse.
But as we've already revealed elsewhere, I'm a cynical sod.
Denzil
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Re: Does anyone believe

Quote from: artmo
No, these figures are for the last quarter and VAT went up on 1st January which will reflect in the next figures to be released.

That's what I meant Smiley. "This quarter", meaning the one we are in now.