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BREXIT

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Re: BREXIT

Fancy a flutter? Latest Betfair odds.

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Re: BREXIT


@christmas wrote:

The geezer that knows how many Conservative MPs have written letters of no confidence, has come out to say he would welcome a delay in next week's Commons Brexit vote.

The Conservative party is usually good at coming to an agreement behind the scenes, is this the first sign of what used to be called the 'grandees' stepping in and taking control?

The DUP and Conservative Brexit MPs are said to have rejected the approach made yesterday by the Prime Minister, but remember the old saying there is no one more stubborn than a woman scorned.  


 

There is an article in today's FT headed "Leave Campaigners Quietly Prepare for Second Brexit Referendum". You could be right. 

As an aside, the ruling on the Article 50 legal case will be announced next Monday, 10th December, brought forward from the 17th.

wotsup
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Re: BREXIT

https://brexitcentral.com/uks-unnoticed-export-boom-underlines-no-deal-brexit-nothing-fear/

 

 

Wow,  look at this - our balance of payments deficit cut and we are exporting more outside EU.

Bad news for the (  48% ) chicken lickens who are still stuck in the EU battery hen-house afraid to go outside,

 

Figures are from HMRC and ONS - and they are not a 'forecast' ( which can be made as bad or good as the 'assumptions' that are put into computer models ) but real live figures....

 

Luzern
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Re: BREXIT


@christmas wrote:

@wotsup wrote:

 

 

The truth about real cost of UK membership of EU.

 

....... 95% of future growth will be outside Eurozone...

 

 

 

 

Most businesses report that (the) amount of paperwork and problems exporting to non EU countries is about the same as to EU........


 

The truth is William Dartmouth is a another Eton Educated member of the political elite.

Blimey you are scrapping the barrel with the 95% future growth figure, back in 2012 it was forecast to be 90% growth by 2015.

But what is it 90% of?

Are you saying you'd prefer a 90% increase of trade with China worth £15.1bn rather than a 10% increase of trade with the EU worth £23.5bn?

In 2000 our trade with China amounted to £1.8bn since which there has been a 830% increase to £16.8.bn.

Whilst since 2000 our trade with other EU countries has gone from £146.8bn to £235.8bn a 60% increase.

Which is the better deal a car priced £100,000 car with a 80% discount or the same car priced at £25,000 with a measly 20% discount. Cool smiley

 

 


@christmas Your question reminds me of my dad in a way! When the Unions were asking for, say, a 15% raise, and the boss was offering 4%. He'd opine, rather 4% of something than 15% of nothing.

Has anything really changed? Sometimes it feels like the Brexiters' hoi polloi are behaving the same, neither maths or logic being a strength. 

No one has to agree with my opinion, but in the time I have left a miracle would be nice.
wotsup
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Re: BREXIT


@nozzer wrote:


 

There is an article in today's FT headed "Leave Campaigners Quietly Prepare for Second Brexit Referendum". You could be right. 

As an aside, the ruling on the Article 50 legal case will be announced next Monday, 10th December, brought forward from the 17th.

 

So we have a second referendum,  if remain get more votes that means the score is 1 - 1 - so we need a third 'tie breaker' - but remember that remain were ahead in the polls all through the 2016 campaign,  and tories were massively ahead of labour in the run-up to 2017 election,  Clinton was ahead of Trump etc. etc..  The only certain thing about polls these days is that they always get it wrong,  the people who know ( like Google, who can track what people are googling) do not ask a sample of the public any more.  Polls these days are no more accurate than the weather forecast, which changes every day and cannot be relied on more than 1 day ahead, and it is only the weather on the day that matters.

 

As for the ECJ ruling being brought forward they are playing politics as expected, they are releasing the result ( foregone conclusion anyway, worked out on the back of a cigarette packet during their lunch hour ) of their ruling on the eve of the vote in parliament,  the ECJ is nothing more than the legal support mechanism for the EU political project - there is no legal precedent on cancelling A50 so they will just come up with the result most beneficial to their EU paymasters.


 

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Re: BREXIT


@wotsup wrote:

https://brexitcentral.com/uks-unnoticed-export-boom-underlines-no-deal-brexit-nothing-fear/

 

 

Wow,  look at this - our balance of payments deficit cut and we are exporting more outside EU.

Bad news for the (  48% ) chicken lickens who are still stuck in the EU battery hen-house afraid to go outside,

 

Figures are from HMRC and ONS - and they are not a 'forecast' ( which can be made as bad or good as the 'assumptions' that are put into computer models ) but real live figures....

 


 

The bloke who wrote that has used it to say that there's nothing to fear from a no-deal Brexit. Another example of convenient memory-loss. He forgets that if we do leave without a deal we are automatically a Third Country under WTO rules. That means that we obey the tariffs which the WTO apply to that type of country, and they vary between about 25% to 3.7% depending on the type of goods being exported. We currently export tariff-free to the EU, so what do you think that would do to the export scenario? Why would anyone want to buy anything with tariffs of up to 25% slapped on them? And if someone says we could negotiate separate deals with those countries, the answer is yes of course we could, but they take years, sometimes a decade. So what are the soon-to-be unemployed to do, knit balaclavas?

 

https://www.prepareforbrexit.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/Brexit-WTO-Tariff-Briefing-Final-Version...

wotsup
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Re: BREXIT

This is very interesting ... 

https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/783900/Britain-secret-Brexit-10-year-tariff-free-trade-deal-...

 

as is this

http://theconversation.com/want-a-brexit-deal-referendum-a-major-voting-problem-is-being-overlooked-...

 

and guess who has just opened a nice big oil and gas field - your got it UK, eat your hearts out EU ( hope Russia stops your gas supply)

 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-north-east-orkney-shetland-46304346

 

and this - north sea remains one of the most important gas and oil regions in the world

https://www.offshore-technology.com/features/new-era-small-producers-arrived-uk-north-sea/

 

 

VileReynard
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Re: BREXIT

Hold the front page!

The Clair field - 47 miles (75km) west of Shetland - was discovered in 1977 and is estimated to contain seven billion barrels of oil and gas...

You need to read those articles - a splatter of URL's says nothing.

 

Luzern
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Re: BREXIT


@wotsup@wotsup wrote:

This is very interesting ... 

https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/783900/Britain-secret-Brexit-10-year-tariff-free-trade-deal-...

As the article comes from the rabid anti EU, I'd want very deep due diligence paid before going down there. Indeed exploration means little is really known: it's speculative.

as is this

http://theconversation.com/want-a-brexit-deal-referendum-a-major-voting-problem-is-being-overlooked-...

 As if no one knew that, surprise! But maybe we wouldn't be in the present mire, had more thought been given to the referendum terms, and more truthful factual advice forthcoming form either side

and guess who has just opened a nice big oil and gas field - your got it UK, eat your hearts out EU ( hope Russia stops your gas supply)

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-north-east-orkney-shetland-46304346

 Weren't the oil fields once considered a diminishing asset? Are you really thinking they will be our saviour; for how long at our present needs? What you said convinces me of your psychopathic hatred of the EU (maybe europeans too. Lord help us, if such minded people ever ho;d power

eat your hearts out EU ( hope Russia stops your gas supply)

and this - north sea remains one of the most important gas and oil regions in the world

https://www.offshore-technology.com/features/new-era-small-producers-arrived-uk-north-sea/

 

 Speculative, that's all. Good to build a firm case from?Undecided very.

 

Moderator's note by Dick (Strat): Quote fixed.

 

 


 

No one has to agree with my opinion, but in the time I have left a miracle would be nice.
Jonpe
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Re: BREXIT

@wotsup, the mention of AV in one of your links is interesting in this context since we didn't "heartily endorse" first past the post, but heartily rejected the similarly undemocratic AV.  Should a referendum be held on two versions of EU light, the option receiving the most votes could not necessarily be said to have been heartily endorsed by those who voted Leave in the 2016 referendum, it would in a lot of cases have been voted for as the least of two evils.

christmas
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Re: BREXIT


@wotsup wrote:

This is very interesting ... 

https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/783900/Britain-secret-Brexit-10-year-tariff-free-trade-deal-...

 

 

 

 

 


More interestingly it's written by a Royal Correspondent, between commenting on what the Queen is wearing ?

Clearly it was no big secret as another website had already written the story 10 days earlier and note the word 'agreement', I'm sure Rees Mogg will be jumping up and down with joy with the thought of being part of the EU for another 10 years.

christmas
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Re: BREXIT

Comedy gold Liz Truss promoting the Brexit deal at a black pudding factory,standing by a bowl of blood...what the heck was that all about?

How did the factories Ministers visited get selected, I don't think I saw Liz Truss or Stephen Barclay talking to a single worker about Brexit.

Would an employee dare take a verbal pop at a Minister in the presence of their boss, imagine if an ardent Leave or Remainer the deal is not what they voted for or that Theresa May should resign.

 

If the government want MPs to be aware of the opinions of the public hold a referendum or have a general election.

wotsup
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Re: BREXIT


@christmas wrote:

 

 

If the government want MPs to be aware of the opinions of the public hold a referendum or have a general election.


 

 

We already had a referendum and we also had a general election just last year where over 80% of votes went to parties who had it in their manifesto to 'respect the result of the 2016 referendum' - the only parties to say they wanted to remain in EU ( greens and libdumbs ) got nowhere, the greenies stil only have one MP and  in fact the most ardent Europhile ( libdumbs Nick Clegg ) lost his seat in Sheffield Hallam ( losing a majority of almost 16,000 votes).   Conservatives actually got the highest share of vote since 1983 ( 43% ) but lost 13 seats ( many of them by a whisker ).  

The result was hardly a ringing endorsment of pro-EU parties.......

 

The only organisation that insists on people having repeat referenda until they get the 'right' result is that bastion of democracy called the EU,   http://theconservative.online/article/wrong_answer_the_eus_rotten_record_on_referendums     whose elected MEP's can only vote on laws decided by their betters ( the un-elected comissioners ) bit like having the House of Lords in charge of westminster with HoC only able to vote on things the lords deem are OK. 

 

And in case you were wondering what EU membership has done for us http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2016/06/16/how-joining-the-eu-led-to-a-big-decline-in-uk-industry/ 

 

They do not allow members to give state aid to their industries ( unless you are Germany or France) but will happily give huge grants and cheap loans to companies who want to move their manufacturing to new member states ( and even for Ford to move Transit to Turkey,  which is not a member ( but the land grabbing EU would like it to be).

 

Pity the EUs useful idiot varadkar took over when he did otherwise the Irish border would have been sorted

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1051675/Brexit-news-Iain-Duncan-Smith-Irish-border-UK-EU-withdrawa...

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Re: BREXIT

@wotsup Last time we voted to leave the EU 52-48%. Assume we held another referendum and the result was 52-48% to stay. What happens then, do we hold a third referendum and decide best of 3?

 

We have to accept the original result and get the best deal we can for ourselves. So far I don't think we've been trying!

.

wotsup
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Re: BREXIT


@VileReynard wrote:

Hold the front page!

The Clair field - 47 miles (75km) west of Shetland - was discovered in 1977 and is estimated to contain seven billion barrels of oil and gas...

You need to read those articles - a splatter of URL's says nothing.

 


May have been discovered in 1977 but first oil did not flow until 2005, now BP have moved in and upped the amount that can be extracted - it takes an awful long time to set up drilling and infrastructure in an offshore field located in such a difficult place.. There is a lot of gas and oil under eastern Atlantic and north sea, much of it still waiting to be exploited.