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The future...

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The future...

Just a question for anyone technically minded:

There's been more than enough talk about download speeds, contention ratios and available bandwidth recently so I don't want this post to dissolve into the usual chaos but I just want to see what other ppl's views are on where the internet as a whole is going.

I know this seems like a huge topic so let me restrict the question a bit. Dave T recently posted a detailed and informative topic regarding the throttling of connections. He explained about the size of pipes and about why they can't have too many people on at one time and that prices for a truly unlimited 8Meg connection would cost £20,000 per year.

I just wanted to know what will happen when a) everyone is on broadband b) all connections are 8meg+ and c) more and more applications make use of these connections. Already VOIP is being touted as the way forward for voice communication and then you’ve got the long-standing talk about an extension to the IP protocol as more and more hardware require an internet address.

I’m not sure of the benefit of one technology (maximum line speeds from exchange to user) developing more rapidly than another (the ability of BTw to feed the bandwidth through to the ISPs economically). After you get into three figures on a connection you can open webpages happily but we’ve already we’ve got a host of ppl (me included) complaining that their 2meg connection only works at 512 speeds for anything else. What is the point of 8meg or more when the technology is not there to actually allow you to make use of the possible bandwidth :?:
16 REPLIES
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The future...

most application dont use your full connection so it isnt really a problem for now....

however games and such like will start to use more as they manage to fit more and more ppl onto server and map sizes become larger to accommediate more ppl.

voip isnt a bandwidth hogger as all you need is sound quality that sound clear to a human ear which i believe is possible over 56k with some clarity issues.

p2p and such like programs of the future will be the real issue along with the introduction of tvip (television over internet protocol) whichc will demand alot of bandwidth o push hdtv throught our copper cable.

I beleive to enable tvip there need to be a dramtic reduction in cost or increase in what pipes can handle role on the fiber age lol.
Plusnet Staff
Plusnet Staff
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Registered: 04-04-2007

The future...

Hi,

Very interesting topic. Where broadband is going is very interesting to speculate on. I'll see if I can chip in a couple of ideas.

I think no matter what happens certain things will always remain in one form or another - web browsing, communication (email, VoIP, chat), gaming, and software/media distribution.

The way these work may well change, VoIP will get bigger and more widely used, as will some form of video conferencing. We'll see more services like iTunes only including films and TV too.

Here's a thought, a TV show like The Simpsons or The Daily Show as a DivX file is about 175MB, on 8Mbps you could (theoretically) download that in about 3 minutes, with ADSL2+ at 24Mbps it could be down in 1 minute.
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The future...

Quote
Here's a thought, a TV show like The Simpsons or The Daily Show as a DivX file is about 175MB, on 8Mbps you could (theoretically) download that in about 3 minutes, with ADSL2+ at 24Mbps it could be down in 1 minute.



I like the (theoretically) bit :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

On a side note...is it legal to download tv shows that you could have watched on tv but missedHuh
Community Veteran
Posts: 2,322
Registered: 01-08-2007

The future...

Theorecticaly Blockbuster or HMV etc could set up an online DVD download/theatre site.

You could theoretically download an entire 4300MB of data in around 25 mins.

Obviously the security of this would have to be tested, but as licensed WMV files seem to be acceptable to the RIAA, it would seem that this technology could be used for allowing people to legally download DVD's.

It could save the manufacturers thousands, and the possibility of lower unit prices to consumers could lower piracy rates, saving the industry millions. The speeds of 24mb are mind boggling, but the bandwidth availability on the backend would have to be huuuuge for that technology to become commonplace.
Community Veteran
Posts: 2,322
Registered: 01-08-2007

The future...

Quote

On a side note...is it legal to download tv shows that you could have watched on tv but missedHuh


Sorry missed that - it is a good point. I have absolutley no idea! I would guess that as you can set your video to record stuff and there is nothing to stop you lending that video to your mate who "missed" the show - then I would assume it is legal, but then again you are accessing media that is copyrighted, so maybe it isn't legal.

But as soon as they broadcast the show, does it not become public domain anyway? Then it must be legal. I suppose its only illegal if you use any part of the programme for your own publications/videos without consent.

What a good question. Anyone know for certain?
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it is actually against the law to download shows as most of the shows are actually made by hollywood companies you can guess why they are against it...

it was the same when tape and video tape came out it was judged illegal by the film and music industry.

unless you actually pay for the likes of sky etc you dont have a right to record it and you certainly dont have a right to distribute it which is the case if you download it i am afraid.....that is why they are starting to come down hard on that too.

on the hmv and stuff of a 4300mb file if they wanted to do this competitvely they would require to reduce the film size with the likes of divx at current moment in time around a gb but with higher speeds come hdtv quality.

its theoritcal because it a contended service and you would only get that garenteed speed with little other users on in your pipe.
ceridwen
Grafter
Posts: 937
Registered: 14-10-2007

The future...

Quote
Quote

On a side note...is it legal to download tv shows that you could have watched on tv but missedHuh


Sorry missed that - it is a good point. I have absolutley no idea! I would guess that as you can set your video to record stuff and there is nothing to stop you lending that video to your mate who "missed" the show


Technically (if I understand the time delay exclusion to copyright), you aren't supposed to lend it to your mate. In fact you are supposed to only use the video recorder to allow you to watch the programme later and then delete the copy...

and of course we all dilligently delete the programmes after we have watched them don't we...

Policing the strict wording of the law would be impossible, and on the whole a blind eye is turned to "lending to a few
mates" - however, lending to a few million mates on the internet would be pushing it a little too far.

Last time I looked at the EU copyright directive (1999), the time delay exclusion only applied if there was no alternative means provided by the broadcaster - e.g. because the BBC now broadcast some radio shows on the internet for a week for those who have missed them, it might be illegal to record those programme for any reason... (or at least the UK copyright law could be tightened to that extent and still comform to the EU directive)

Matthew
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Quote
unless you actually pay for the likes of sky etc you dont have a right to record it and you certainly dont have a right to distribute it which is the case if you download it i am afraid.....that is why they are starting to come down hard on that too.


I know the law regarding uploading...p2p is BAD.....you have to upload which is a criminal offence in the UK.

But hypothetical ( I would NEVER download Eastenders even on a free 100mbs connection) its last weeks Eastenders shown umpteen times on various BBC channels but I missed them all (boo hoo)

I spot it on usenet and download it ( no uploading) illegal or not ??

Not that im really bothered but the more people I can put off using p2p the more bandwidth for me Smiley
Plusnet Staff
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The future...

Quote

I like the (theoretically) bit


Indeed, but imagine this. You have an 8Mbps service or an ADSL2+ service, and you we either created a video on demand service or teamed up with one or more of the broadcasters.

We could set the priority of this video on demand service to be the highest priority traffic on our network. This means that a 30 minute TV show can be sent to you in bursts of traffic, say three 60MB blocks, which could mean that on ADSL2+ you only wait about a minute before seeing TV show or film.

If you want to watch Columbo instead then you get sent 12 60MB blocks.
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Dave..

Was that a hypothetical answer or is it based on some prior knowledge??

Smiley
Plusnet Staff
Plusnet Staff
Posts: 12,169
Thanks: 18
Fixes: 1
Registered: 04-04-2007

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It's hypothetical, but certainly the direction that the industry is moving so would say there's a good chance of something like that happening in the next couple of years.
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All tv shows here or abroad are copyrighted exactly the same as music so its illegal to download upload and to offer the downloads on a website. etc

many sites have been shu down for holding tv torrents...as it removes cash from the producers pockets as you taking it from the net reduces viewing figures and thus effecting the price they can charge for the product.
Metalguru
Grafter
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Could the present BT infrastructure manage 24Mbps ?
Community Veteran
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My guess would be no. Because we pioneered the way in telecoms, Britain now needs some serious money spent in order to upgrade the entiren network. Our speeds and distances those speeds are available at, lag quite some way behind most other developed countries in the world.

Without serious money spen on the infrastructure we will be behind the rest of the developed world, as per usual the government wont invest until it becomes critical, affecting business and the economy.

As these faster speeds become more commonplace around the world, and more use is made of these speeds, there is no real reason to upgrade.

It would be a mamoth project to undertake, and would no doubt take many years to complete, so if the government or collective industries don't start this until it is too late, it could cost the countries economy hard.

Thats my view anyway.